Pre-Match Analysis: T1 vs Weibo Gaming

The highly anticipated event, the 2023 LOL World Championship Finals, is set to commence on November 19th. It features T1 from LCK against Weibo Gaming from LPL. According to the odds provided by Esportsbet.io, T1 (1.230) currently holds a significant advantage over WBG (4.307).

 

According to on-site reporters at the World Championship, WBG finds it difficult to secure teams in Korea for practice matches. Many clubs in Korea prefer T1 to win on their home ground as an LCK championship would better promote esports in Korea. Consequently, several clubs are reluctant to assist WBG. On the other hand, T1 has engaged with three LCK teams for practice sessions, yielding decent results, although it doesn't necessarily indicate anything definitive. Practice matches primarily serve as a way to practice strategies and assess effectiveness. If WBG wants to understand T1's strategies, referencing T1's matches against JDG would be sufficient. T1 pulled out almost all their hidden tricks to deal with their toughest opponent this year, JDG.

 

T1's exceptional performance primarily rested on their lane priority and countering strategies. To defeat T1, firstly, your lanes must be competent, and secondly, it's crucial to secure every drake; otherwise, the mid-game becomes challenging to overturn. Even JDG, known for team fighting and comebacks, couldn't reverse against T1. The primary reasons for JDG's significant defeat lie in the top lane and jungle. 369's lane couldn't match Zeus, and Kanavi didn't control the drakes at all. In Game 1, 369 picked the most overpowered Rumble with Ignite, but couldn't gain lane advantages. This was entirely unacceptable as it indirectly forces the team to bear a counter-lane for you. After T1 witnessed 369's Rumble failing, they didn't bother with it anymore, even on the red side, they didn't need to ban Rumble. In Game 4, after JDG picked Aatrox, T1 later chose Yone. 369 consistently fell behind by 30 CS in the lanes, and the drafting phase was once again outplayed.

 

In the current meta, victory often depends more on the Ban/Pick phase than players' skill levels. Whichever team selects more counter-lane champions and secures more lane priority tends to win the match. For example, in the game where LNG was swept by T1 3:0, although they chose Gwen in two matches to suppress Aatrox, but had no effect; Zika doesn't play Yone, who is a more viable option, and it led to an embarrassing lost. In this match, it was also the first time this year that T1 used a double marksman comp in the bottom lane. LNG's Aphelios + Rakan was unable to gain lane priority, leading to GALA being trapped in all three matches. For another instance, in T1's first match against JDG, seeing T1 selecting Jhin + Bard, JDG unexpectedly picked Alistar as the final choice. They couldn't win the lanes and were inferior in roaming. How could they win?

 

In this aspect of B/P, WBG can outperform JDG. Firstly, TheShy's Rumble is undoubtedly better than 369's, and TheShy is renowned for laning, with a deep champion pool. He has enough tactics to restrict Zeus, and potentially even gain a lane advantage. In WBG's match against BLG, they focused significantly on the top lane's lane priority, ensuring TheShy's comfort. They were willing to let TheShy choose off-meta champions like Quinn, Graves, proving WBG's adaptation to the current environment. However, WBG's biggest concern is Xiaohu's inconsistency. Xiaohu's performance at this year's World Championship fluctuated, especially against foreign teams; it wasn't until facing familiar LPL opponents that he stabilized his mentality. Now, facing the legendary player Faker, who's currently in excellent form, dealing with the pressure will undoubtedly be WBG's biggest challenge before the match.

 

Players' form, champion pool depth, B/P strategies, and home ground advantages all favor T1. It's indeed a daunting challenge for WBG to secure the championship. We also believe that T1 will defeat their opponents, and Faker will secure his fourth career championship. From a betting perspective, we consider T1 -1.5 for WBG's victory (2.459) or even a more conservative T1 -2.5 for WBG's victory (1.345) as good opportunities. We believe TheShy's performance can secure 1-2 wins for WBG.