IEM Melbourne 2025 Grand Finals Preview: Vitality vs Falcons

IEM Melbourne 2025 Grand Final: Vitality vs. Falcons – Full Statistical Preview

April 27, 2025 | Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne

The Grand Final of IEM Melbourne 2025 is set:

Team Vitality — the dominant favorites — will face the ambitious challengers, Team Falcons , in a Best-of-5 decider for the $1,000,000 prize pool.

Here’s an in-depth preview based on the latest data, performances, and matchup probabilities.

Team Vitality : The Unstoppable Machine

Current Roster:

• Dan "apEX" Madesclaire

• Mathieu "ZywOo" Herbaut

• Shahar "flameZ" Shushan

• William "mezii" Merriman

• Robin "ropz" Kool

• Coach: Rémy "XTQZZZ" Quoniam

Recent Form (IEM Melbourne 2025):

• Maps Won: 8-0 (100% win rate)

• Average Round Difference: +7.5 rounds

• First Kill Success Rate: 62%

• Pistol Round Win Rate: 58%

• Clutch Win Rate (1vX): 67%

Key Strengths:

• ZywOo currently holds a 1.34 HLTV rating this tournament (top 1 overall).

• mezii and ropz provide 75% success rate in late-round clutching when alive past 45 seconds.

• flameZ consistently opening with a 56% success entry rate.

Team Falcons : The Bold Challengers

Current Roster:

• Emil "Magisk" Reif

• Nikola "NiKo" Kovač

• Damjan "kyxsan" Stoilkovski

• Ilya "m0NESY" Osipov

• René "TeSeS" Madsen

• Coach: Danny "zonic" Sørensen

Recent Form (IEM Melbourne 2025):

• Maps Won: 7-3 (70% win rate)

• Average Round Difference: +3.2 rounds

• First Kill Success Rate: 55%

• Pistol Round Win Rate: 62%

• Clutch Win Rate (1vX): 51%

Key Strengths:

• NiKo is playing at a 1.22 HLTV rating with a 53% multi-kill round ratio.

• m0NESY has a first AWP kill success of 49%, second highest behind ZywOo.

• TeSeS shows a 60% CT-side survival rate (team-high).

Map Veto

Using their recent map data and comfort zones:

Vitality likely bans: Ancient (their weakest at 43% winrate)
Falcons likely bans: Anubis (lowest pick priority)

Predicted Picks:

• Vitality picks: Inferno (85% winrate past 3 months)

• Falcons picks: Dust2 (72% winrate past 3 months)

Remaining Maps and Decider:

• Mirage (leaning Vitality)

• Nuke (leaning Falcons)

• Train (50/50 brawl)

Overall Series Win Probability

Predicted Scoreline:

Vitality 3-1 Falcons

Possible Alternate Scenario: Falcons push a 5-map thriller if they can steal Mirage early.

Final Thoughts

• If Vitality wins pistol rounds: Their probability of closing maps rises to 72%.

• If Falcons start strong: Falcons' win chance improves by 18% if they win 4+ CT-side rounds early.

• Critical Detail: Falcons need m0NESY to outperform ZywOo (less than 5 deaths difference) to realistically upset.

Prediction:

• Vitality defeat Falcons 3-1.
• MVP likely: ZywOo (74% chance if Vitality wins)