IEM Melbourne 2025 Grand Finals Preview: Vitality vs Falcons

IEM Melbourne 2025 Grand Final: Vitality vs. Falcons – Full Statistical Preview

April 27, 2025 | Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne

The Grand Final of IEM Melbourne 2025 is set:

Team Vitality — the dominant favorites — will face the ambitious challengers, Team Falcons , in a Best-of-5 decider for the $1,000,000 prize pool.

Here’s an in-depth preview based on the latest data, performances, and matchup probabilities.

Team Vitality : The Unstoppable Machine

Current Roster:

Dan "apEX" Madesclaire
Mathieu "ZywOo" Herbaut
Shahar "flameZ" Shushan
William "mezii" Merriman
Robin "ropz" Kool
Coach: Rémy "XTQZZZ" Quoniam

Recent Form (IEM Melbourne 2025):

Maps Won: 8-0 (100% win rate)
Average Round Difference: +7.5 rounds
First Kill Success Rate: 62%
Pistol Round Win Rate: 58%
Clutch Win Rate (1vX): 67%

Key Strengths:

ZywOo currently holds a 1.34 HLTV rating this tournament (top 1 overall).
mezii and ropz provide 75% success rate in late-round clutching when alive past 45 seconds.
flameZ consistently opening with a 56% success entry rate.

Team Falcons : The Bold Challengers

Current Roster:

Emil "Magisk" Reif
Nikola "NiKo" Kovač
Damjan "kyxsan" Stoilkovski
Ilya "m0NESY" Osipov
René "TeSeS" Madsen
Coach: Danny "zonic" Sørensen

Recent Form (IEM Melbourne 2025):

Maps Won: 7-3 (70% win rate)
Average Round Difference: +3.2 rounds
First Kill Success Rate: 55%
Pistol Round Win Rate: 62%
Clutch Win Rate (1vX): 51%

Key Strengths:

NiKo is playing at a 1.22 HLTV rating with a 53% multi-kill round ratio.
m0NESY has a first AWP kill success of 49%, second highest behind ZywOo.
TeSeS shows a 60% CT-side survival rate (team-high).

Map Veto

Using their recent map data and comfort zones:

Vitality likely bans: Ancient (their weakest at 43% winrate)
Falcons likely bans: Anubis (lowest pick priority)

Predicted Picks:

Vitality picks: Inferno (85% winrate past 3 months)
Falcons picks: Dust2 (72% winrate past 3 months)

Remaining Maps and Decider:

Mirage (leaning Vitality)
Nuke (leaning Falcons)
Train (50/50 brawl)

Overall Series Win Probability

Team Vitality 65% - 35% Team Falcons

Predicted Scoreline:

Vitality 3-1 Falcons

Possible Alternate Scenario: Falcons push a 5-map thriller if they can steal Mirage early.

Final Thoughts

If Vitality wins pistol rounds: Their probability of closing maps rises to 72%.
If Falcons start strong: Falcons' win chance improves by 18% if they win 4+ CT-side rounds early.
Critical Detail: Falcons need m0NESY to outperform ZywOo (less than 5 deaths difference) to realistically upset.

Prediction: