Noxville explained how to predict the winner of a Dota 2 match with a 70% probability

Ben Steenhuisen, a Dota 2 analyst known as ‘Noxville,’ said that if a team kills the Tormentor first, the odds of that team winning the match is nearly 70%. This means that a player can predict who the winner is by the 15-minute mark in the match.

He made this claim on his X account.

“After 67 pro games this patch (in which a tormentor was taken - 1 game was too short!) the first tormentor win % is 46-21 (68.66%). Matches in which the first tormentor taking team win are (on average) 2m45s shorter than those in which they lose"

Noxville stated that a team deploying the strategy of killing the Tormentor at the 15 minute mark is extremely beneficial to a team. It drastically increases their likelihood of success. The analyst himself however acknowledges the fact that he wants to analyze a larger sample size of 150 matches for more definitive conclusions.

Regardless, he claims for now that, in all probability, the winner of official matches is decided before the 15-minute mark. Let me add that several professional players have already noticed this and contacted Valve in order to request them to decrease the importance of mini-bosses in regular matches.

As a reminder, Valve has already registered the fact of the new input lag occurring in patch 7.38 and their possible solutions.