ultimate ’s Jumping Deagle Shot Had Around 1% Chance to Hit

ultimate ’s Jumping Deagle Shot Had Around 1% Chance to Hit

One of the biggest highlight moments from the IEM Cologne Major 2026 has now been analyzed in detail.

A community member ran a 5,000-shot simulation to calculate the probability of ultimate landing his jumping Deagle headshot. The result showed just how unlikely the shot really was.

The simulation used spread values, positions, and angles taken directly from the demo file. The goal was to recreate the exact conditions of the original moment as closely as possible. From the same position and against the same target, 5,000 shots were fired.

Only 49 of those 5,000 shots landed as headshots. That equals a 0.98% hit rate, which rounds to roughly 1%.

In simple terms, if ultimate attempted the same shot 100 times under the same conditions, he would be expected to hit it only once. The same spread values also apply in CS:GO, meaning the result is not a CS2-specific issue but part of how Deagle jump inaccuracy works across both games.

Statistically, the shot was almost entirely luck, with around a 99% chance of missing on any single attempt. That does not make the moment any less spectacular, but it does put the play into context.

It was the kind of moment that makes Counter-Strike both frustrating and unforgettable: a low-percentage shot that somehow lands on the biggest stage.